Global gas prices diverged in November, with Asian and European benchmarks softening on strong LNG supply and relatively weak demand, while North American prices rallied on colder weather and higher gas consumption.
Asian and European gas prices continued to soften in November amid strong LNG supply growth, geopolitical hopes and relatively weak demand. In contrast, gas prices in North America recorded strong gains on colder weather boosting gas demand.
In Europe, TTF month-ahead prices fell by 25% yoy to $10.5/mmbtu.
Global LNG supply surged by more than 15% yoy, putting downward pressure both on European and Asian spot prices. In addition, hopes on a potential peace in Ukraine provided additional downward pressure on prices. Even the short-lived cold spell in the second half of November could not shift the downward trajectory, with TTF prices plummeting to below $10/mmbtu by the end of the month – their lowest level since May 2024.
In Asia, JKM prices followed a similar trajectory, down by 20% yoy to an average of just over $11/mmbtu. Ample LNG supply together with relatively weak Asian demand continued to provide downward pressure on Asian spot LNG prices. JKM prices are now trading within the oil-indexed price range and, importantly, they are now trading slightly below the Guangdong LNG marker in China. If sustained, this could incentivise China’s return to the spot market as we enter the winter season.
In the US, Henry Hub prices soared by 80% yoy to $3.7/mmbtu. Early cold spells boosted gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors, while LNG feedgas flows are reaching new all-time highs. Meanwhile, Waha hub prices remained in negative territory, at an average of minus $0.3/mmbtu, amid ample associated gas and constrained takeaway capacity.
Further north in Canada, gas prices at AECO rose by 60% yoy to just $1.6/mmbtu. Colder weather is boosting space heating demand and provides some relief to gas prices, which have been trending at an unsustainably low level.
What is your view? How will global gas prices evolve as we enter the deep winter season? Will the unfolding LNG wave moderate further prices across the key import markets?
Source: Greg MOLNAR
The post Global gas prices diverge: Asia and Europe soften while North America rallies in November first appeared on Global LNG Hub.