Venture Global’s FID for CP2 LNG brings the total volume of new capacity sanctioned in 2025 to over 40 mtpa. This makes 2025 the third largest year in history for FIDs, and we are still only in July. More FIDs are likely to come, especially from the US.
This has been building over the first half of the year and will deepen the expected loosening of market balances over the next five years. The increased attractiveness of US LNG due as a geopolitical chip and the growing “all in” bet by the supply-side are continuing to expand the largest wave of new supply in the history of the industry.
What is also interesting is the $15.1bln figure quoted in Venture Global’s press release. By using the rule of thumb that $1000/tpa equals a cost of $3.50/MMBtu, I make the cost of phase 1 of the project to be ca. $3.67/MMBtu, in what appears to be a significant inflation in the cost of US LNG.
Source: Giovanni Bettinelli
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